2019年视频直播状况

“As an example, I’m an analyst and I know all of the services that offer channels. 我还是花了一个小时来浏览和比较所有的, 的选项, 找出哪一个有我想要的东西. 我甚至知道该去哪里找. So for average consumers, I think it’s going to be much more exploratory,” Sappington says. “我认为这是一个真正的挑战, because it’s not like everyone has infinite time to go test every option out there.”

为了解决这个问题，视频直播服务需要加大努力. 他们需要沟通可用的选项, 并帮助人们理解内容的差异, 价格, 和特性. 和 the press needs to explain the range of options, as well, then make recommendations.

像Roku这样的流媒体平台更容易进行比较, 因为消费者可以在一个用户界面中查看一系列选择. The market is maturing, Sappington adds, and that makes it easier to find 信息.

不过，不要指望所有尝试直播服务的人都会切断网络. One thing Parks Associates has discovered is that about a third of people that sign up for vMVPDs keep their traditional pay TV services. 萨平顿认为，消费者现在正处于探索阶段, and don’t want to stop their pay TV service until they’re sure they have a solid replacement.

像Hulu这样的虚拟多频道节目分销商正在获得吸引力, but Parks Associates has discovered that about a third of the people who subscribe to them also keep their traditional pay TV services.

While sports viewing is growing online, esports viewing seems to be growing even faster. 萨平顿认为，该地区甚至还没有接近峰值. 与传统体育相比，电子竞技有两个优势. 首先，它是国际性的. 其中许多游戏都具有国际吸引力，美国的游戏玩家也很喜欢这些游戏.S. might have just as much interest in watching a European esports 匹配 as Europeans would have in watching a U.S. 匹配. 其次，电子竞技从一开始就考虑到在线观看. While baseball and football have had to retrofit their equipment for online distribution, 它从电子竞技开始就存在.

Some esports live streams exceed the TV audiences for many cable shows, Sappington points out. 大约有50万到100万的观众. 这是广告商可以利用的真正规模. 此外，这些仍处于早期阶段，未来还会有更多的增长.

“这才刚刚开始. One of the challenges in achieving a peak for esports is that it’s so volatile,” Sappington says. “18个月前，《百家乐软件》只是雷达上的一个光点. 这并不是一款受欢迎的游戏. 它是边缘的. 这款游戏刚刚发行，无论如何也算不上是一款大型游戏. 在一年多一点的时间里, it is massive to where you have elementary school children doing the Fortnite dances in the hallways of school. 由此诞生了新的名人. 这是著名的忍者, 据报道，他每月有50万美元的赞助费, 在广告, 还有很多其他方面. 那是在一年之内. 非常不稳定.”

5G的影响

5G技术将对视频直播产生巨大影响. 尽管厂商在今年的消费电子展上说了些什么, 5G在2019年可能不会产生巨大影响, 但它肯定会在2020年及以后出现. 根据马克彼得斯的说法, 埃森哲董事总经理, 5G will have an impact on both the contribution side of the business and the distribution side. 在贡献方面，他认为5G有几个很大的优势. 它将以更低的成本为生产商提供更高的带宽, 并使从越来越远的地方流媒体成为可能. It will be cheaper and more practical than sending a satellite truck and will offer easier access than bonded cellular. 他认为，一些有趣的创业公司可能会利用这个机会成长起来, 也许可以通过广播不太为人所知的事件，使其成为主流.

随着5G连接的发展, looks for two new technologies—mobile edge computing (MEC) and network splicing—to gain importance. MEC将让分销商将更多的计算百家乐软件带到边缘. 这将有助于处理涉及不可缓存数据的流, 比如个性化服务, 并可能导致创新的新产品. Network splicing lets network operators allocate more bandwidth to different customers. 有了4G，每个用户都能平等地分享带宽. But with 5G, operators can allocate bandwidth as needed, a feature they can productize and sell. Network splicing works seamlessly through the network without requiring customers to rely on any workarounds.

对分布, 5G and other related technologies will usher in a new generation of streaming video, 彼得斯认为. 体验会更刺激，更有粘性, 无论是在现场活动期间还是之后, 鼓励观众继续观看. With robust 5G connections and MEC, publishers won’t be limited to a handset’s computing power. They’ll be able to create richly rendered experiences with all computing done in the network and then delivered to the handset. 他们还将能够以更高的分辨率和更丰富的色彩进行流媒体播放. 5G的吞吐量将使这成为可能.

对于家庭观看，5G将为提供商开辟新的选择. 而家庭现在依靠固定线路或卫星连接, 他们很快就可以货比三家选择无线5G供应商了. The 5G hype will be strong in 2019, but major infrastructure upgrades will take a couple years. 5G access will begin to appear this year, but ubiquitous access is still a few years away. 同样，车载视频体验也需要数年才能实现.

新的观看范式

所有这些变化, it’s no wonder young people think of TV differently than do older generations. 他们不会少看，但他们会用自己的方式看. 对他们来说，电视是需求驱动的，而且规模很小. Understanding that new paradigm of TV viewing behavior and programming in a way that optimizes engagement will be a major push in 2019, 彼得斯说.

“我认为这将通过数据驱动的个性化来实现, 数字平台最难实现的一个方面是什么, and certainly I’ve read some data which shows that data-driven personalization is highly desirable but challenging,彼得斯说. “这可能是因为领养的复杂性, 例如, machine learning-based technologies to constantly change and react and apply programing. 和, ‘programming’ could mean [something] as simple as recommending content or it could be the layout of a particular digital experience optimized for a particular user, which sounds great in theory but in reality is actually very difficult to implement, and very difficult to implement well so that it’s not annoying for a user who likes to feel that they know how to navigate an experience. So, I think we’ll see certainly the experimentation in this space that has been going on behind the scenes the past couple of years. 我认为我们将在2019年开始看到其中的一些推出.”

The success of live video comes down to two concepts that Accenture discusses often, 彼得斯说:信任和目标. Publishers will build trust with consumers by delivering on their promises and providing consistent quality. 建立信任需要时间，而一致性是关键. As for purpose, that comes across in the values companies display and the products they offer. Peters sees this as important for live video providers as they build relationships with various affinity groups. 通过与社区建立联系, providers get closer to their customers and show they can deliver a more differentiated service than traditional TV providers can. Creating strong bonds will be crucial for the live video providers of the future.

2019年将是视频直播的成熟之年, 这是一个发展新技术和向消费者传达可用信息的时代. 电视直播的整个体验正在改变, and decisions made this year will shape the future of how we all experience live events.

[本文发表于2019年3月刊。 流媒体杂志 作为“实时视频的状态”."]

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